THE SHIFTING TRAJECTORY OF INDIA’S FOREIGN POLICY
CONTEXT
- The Third India-U.S. 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue between the Foreign and Defence Ministers of India and the U.S. Secretaries of State and Defence took place in Delhi on October 26-27.
KEY OUTCOME OF THE MEETING
- The signing of the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) for Geo-Spatial Cooperation
- The two-day meeting also discussed steps to take existing bilateral cooperation, including ‘military to military cooperation, secure communication systems and information sharing, defence trade and industrial issues’, to a new level.
- With the signing of BECA, India is now a signatory to all U.S.-related foundational military agreements (LEMOA signed in 2016 and COMCASA signed in 2018)
- Welded together, the foundational military pacts effectively tie India to the wider U.S. strategic architecture in the region.
CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE MILITARY PACTS
- Apprehensions about India’s Military Independence: Previous attempts to sign these agreements were resisted on the ground that it would compromise India’s security and independence in military matters.
- Strategic Autonomy will henceforth sound hollow: Built into the agreements are provisions for a two-way exchange of information that is not aligned with India’s stance on maintaining strategic autonomy.
- Pulled into wider Anti-China Coalition: The U.S. makes little secret of the fact that the primary push for getting India to sign the foundational agreements was the threat posed by China, and by appending its signature India has signed on to becoming part of the wider anti-China ‘coalition of the willing’.
- Non-neutrality in Power Politics: India has effectively jettisoned its previous policy of neutrality, and of maintaining its equi-distance from power blocs (US and China).
- Impacts Indo–Russia Relationship: The impact of India signing on to U.S.-related foundational military agreements, cannot but impact India-Russia relations, which has been a staple of India’s foreign policy for more than half a century.
ARGUMENTS IN FAVOUR OF SIGNING THESE PACTS AND DEEPENING INDIA-US TIES
- It is argued that there are enough India-specific safeguards built into the pacts, and there is no reason for concern.
- It may be argued that the new policy is essentially a pragmatic one, in keeping with the current state of global disorder.
- It could even be argued that an ideologically agnostic attitude is better suited to the prevailing circumstances of today.
IMPACT ON CHINA – MAINTAINING PEACE A TOUGHER CHALLENGE
- China-India relations have never been easy. Since 1988, India has pursued a policy which put a premium on an avoidance of conflicts with China.
- Even after Doklam in 2017, India saw virtue in the Wuhan and Mamallapuram discourses, to maintain better relations. This will now become increasingly problematic as India gravitates towards the U.S. sphere of influence.
- India’s willingness to sign foundational military agreements with the U.S., to obtain high grade intelligence and other sensitive information, would suggest that India has made its choice, which can only exacerbate already deteriorating China-India relations.
- Several of India’s neighbours (Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bangladesh), normally perceived to be within India’s sphere of influence, currently seem to be out of step with India’s approach on many issues.
- At the same time, both China and the U.S. separately, seem to be making inroads and enlarging their influence here.
- The Maldives, for instance, has chosen to enter into a military pact with the U.S. to counter Chinese expansionism in the Indian Ocean region.
WAY AHEAD
- West Asia: India needs to ensure, through deft diplomatic handling, that the latest UAE-Israel linkage does not adversely impact India’s interests in the region. India also needs to devote greater attention to try and restore India-Iran ties which have definitely frayed in recent years.
- Afghanistan: India must decide how a shift in policy at this time would serve India’s objectives in Afghanistan, considering the tremendous investment it has made in recent decades to shore up democracy in that country.
- Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO): India, again, will need to try and square the circle when it comes to its membership of the SCO, considering its new relationship with the U.S.
- Non-Aligned Movement (NAM): Likewise, even though India currently has a detached outlook, vis-à-vis the NAM, and has increasingly distanced itself from the African and Latin American group in terms of policy prescriptions, matters could get aggravated, following India’s new alliance patterns
- Russia: India can hardly hope to count on Russia as a strategic ally at a time, when Russia-China relations have vastly expanded and a strategic congruence exists between the two countries. India will need to handle with skill and dexterity its relationship with Russia.
CONCLUSION
- New Delhi’s diplomatic skills will be tested now that the country is effectively a part of the U.S.’s security architecture